PART 3

Meeting the Challenge of RiskN

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The interconnectedness of RiskN — as well as the volatility it creates — is unprecedented

But market participants have never been in a better place to identify, understand, and mitigate these threats.

Moody’s is bringing together multiple data sets to assess emerging risks and building risk analysis tools across multiple factors.

Meeting the challenge, however, requires both advanced data and technology and, often, organizational behavior change.

Historically, organizations studied and managed risks in silos, defined by the risk area in question or the expertise it required. The supply chain team managed risks within the supply chain. The office of the CIO managed cyber risk.

As new risks emerged, companies assessed data and analysis to understand those risks. They added in-house expertise to manage those risks. But the risks still remained siloed, dealt with largely on their own.

Now, as leaders witness or experience the impact of exponential risk, they are breaking down their own internal silos that can limit the ability to see, understand, and address these threats.

Cross-risk threat analysis and mitigation are now best practice. The focus is less on the individual risk and more on potential combinations.

The complexity and vastness of RiskN – Exponential Risk means that an unprecedented level of intelligence and insight is required.

That’s now possible thanks to massive third-party data sets built around complex relationships and supply chains, powerful analytical tools able to unlock deep insights, and a growing body of knowledge drawn from one real-time example after another.

Getting the
data right

Effective integrated risk analysis defines a common language and framework for a wide variety of risk factors and their potential financial impact.

It then translates events into probabilities of default and loss, and analyzes how risks interact and compound over time — and how that affects financial performance from valuation to cash flow and return on investment.

It works at both asset and portfolio level, allowing organizations and nations to understand their exposure and swap out riskier assets.

Getting the
data right

Effective integrated risk analysis defines a common language and framework for a wide variety of risk factors and their potential financial impact.

It then translates events into probabilities of default and loss, and analyzes how risks interact and compound over time — and how that affects financial performance from valuation to cash flow and return on investment.

It works at both asset and portfolio level, allowing organizations and nations to understand their exposure and swap out riskier assets.

As demand to understand
exponential risk

and build resilience grows, Moody’s is bringing together multiple data sets to assess emerging risks and building risk analysis tools across multiple factors that are both backward- and forward-looking — modeling what could result after an event has occurred and predicting what could result if an event were to occur.

Where to start?

To navigate RiskN, leaders should first probe the following areas

VALUE CREATION

Which established and emerging risk factors are most financially relevant?

How will those material risks evolve and change over time?

VALUE CHAIN

How can we know who we are working with in developing and delivering our products and services — both directly and indirectly? Can we map our entire supply and value chains out to the furthest tiers? What are the risk profiles of the organizations we’re serving and/or partnering with? Can we map our entire customer base?

DATA

What data reporting systems do we have to help our leaders make integrated risk assessments and evaluate long-term plans? Do we have trusted and verifiable data sources on our risk exposure? Do we have an effective system to combine multiple risk data inputs, and to interpret the potential up and downsides?

DASHBOARDS

What is our early warning system for new outside threats that could create contagion effects, including public health risk, armed conflict, and social unrest? What mechanisms do we have to flag and escalate potential flashpoints?

DECISION MAKING

How are we learning from past experiences and making real-time decisions based on reliable data? What processes do we have in place to model and predict potential risks and opportunities with a strong degree of accuracy?