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Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Season 3 Episode 40
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July 9, 2024

Steady GDP growth continues for emerging markets, with wide variation by country

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.
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Season 3 Episode 39
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June 24, 2024

South Africa’s creditworthiness with a new coalition government

The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.
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Season 3 Episode 38
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June 11, 2024

Views from Moody’s Global Emerging Markets 2024 virtual event

Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.
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Season 3 Episode 37
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May 28, 2024

Frontier markets: higher risk, higher potential returns

Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.
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Season 3 Episode 36
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May 13, 2024

Speculative-grade default rate for emerging market companies improves with macro conditions

The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.
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Season 3 Episode 35
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April 30, 2024

Middle East: from geopolitical tensions to Islamic finance

Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.
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Season 3 Episode 34
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April 15, 2024

EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows

Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.
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Season 3 Episode 33
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April 1, 2024

China’s push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs

It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.
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Season 3 Episode 32
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March 18, 2024

Digging into key credit stories for emerging market sovereign investors across the globe

China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.
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Season 3 Episode 31
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March 6, 2024

A focus on West Africa, where bright spots shine through political, security and climate risks

Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.
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Season 3 Episode 30
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February 20, 2024

State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk. 
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Season 3 Episode 29
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February 5, 2024

Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.
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Season 3 Episode 28
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January 22, 2024

Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks

Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.
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Season 3 Episode 27
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January 8, 2024

Five top-of-mind credit stories for EM sovereign investors in 2024

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.
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Season 3 Episode 26
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November 27, 2023

COP28 climate summit highlights carbon transition risks for emerging markets

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.
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Season 3 Episode 25
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November 16, 2023

Economic considerations underpin stable emerging market 2024 outlook

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.
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Season 3 Episode 24
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October 30, 2023

Emerging market central banks reassess pace of monetary easing as US Fed holds rates for longer

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.
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Season 3 Episode 23
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October 16, 2023

A focus on emerging markets as bond yields and oil prices oscillate, plus a deep dive on Egypt

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.
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Season 3 Episode 22
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October 2, 2023

How recent US, UK, euro area monetary policy decisions, US dollar strength affect emerging markets

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.
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Season 3 Episode 21
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September 18, 2023

Disinflation continues in EMs; Mexico’s industrial production rises; Gabon’s outlook turns negative

Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.
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Season 3 Episode 20
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September 8, 2023

Stress in China’s property sector has potential knock-on effects across multiple sectors

In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.
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Season 3 Episode 19
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August 23, 2023

More emerging market sovereigns pursue debt-for-nature swaps to reduce debt burdens

Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.
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Season 3 Episode 18
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August 10, 2023

Emerging Markets insights and view ahead with Kojo Amoo-Gottfried

BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class.
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Season 3 Episode 17
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July 26, 2023

China’s soft economic recovery raises contingent liability risks from LGFVs

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.
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Season 3 Episode 16
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July 13, 2023

South Africa power cuts dim economic outlook

Moody’s analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa’s energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government’s plans to address the crisis.
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Season 3 Episode 15
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June 22, 2023

Debt sustainability is at risk for frontier market sovereigns

Moody’s analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.
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Season 3 Episode 14
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June 7, 2023

Moody’s Global Emerging Markets Summit 2023: High hopes, higher risks?

Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.
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Season 3 Episode 13
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May 24, 2023

Is India the next emerging market powerhouse?

Moody’s analysts discuss India’s growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade.
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Season 3 Episode 12
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May 17, 2023

Emerging markets with nature-dependent sectors face natural capital depletion risks

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.
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Season 3 Episode 11
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May 3, 2023

Cost-of-living crisis weakens social contracts across the globe, adding to global economic risks

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to the social contract, and how a weakening in the contract is often associated with credit deterioration in the countries where it takes place.
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Season 3 Episode 10
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April 19, 2023

Emerging market corporate credit quality better placed to handle next downturn

Moody's analysts explore two downside scenarios to frame the likely impact of a US recession on EM corporates, combining lessons from past downturns with the many changes to the credit landscape in the years since.
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Season 3 Episode 9
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April 5, 2023

World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings will cover range of emerging market credit topics

Moody’s analysts explore the key themes and policy issues likely to be at the center of the upcoming World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, including banking turmoil, tightening credit, ESG and more.
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Season 3 Episode 8
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March 23, 2023

Mark Zandi on Fed rate hike, banking stress, recession risks and implications for emerging markets

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision and response to banking stress, recession risks and more.
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Season 3 Episode 7
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March 17, 2023

US bank failures have ripple effects worldwide

Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe.
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Season 3 Episode 6
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March 8, 2023

Islamic finance set to continue its steady expansion in 2023

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Nitish Bhojnagarwala of the Financial Institutions team and special guest Sohail Ali of DLA Piper join host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for Islamic finance across emerging markets. Plus, they dive into the intersection of ESG and Islamic finance, and the risks associated with “green” sukuk issuance.
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Season 3 Episode 5
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March 6, 2023

Will Nigeria’s presidential elections affect credit conditions for banks and the sovereign?

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ighosime Oyofo and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team and Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team join host Scott Phillips to discuss the credit implications of Nigeria’s presidential elections, with a focus on the banking system and the sovereign.
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Season 3 Episode 4
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February 22, 2023

Tight financing conditions will continue to challenge frontier markets' credit strength

In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Scott Phillips of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss a recent turn of events for emerging market credit conditions, including some easing in financial conditions, with inflation, yields and spreads all lower than at the end of 2022, despite continued volatility. They explore what recent events mean for debt issuers in emerging and frontier economies and reveal which sovereigns are still at risk of default.
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Season 3 Episode 3
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February 8, 2023

Political unrest adds to credit pressures across Latin America

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of political unrest in Peru, how it compares to recent events in Brazil and credit distress in Argentina. Plus, Valeria Azconegui of Moody’s Local shares insights from the ground.
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Season 3 Episode 2
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January 25, 2023

Despite mixed outlook, Middle East houses one of 2023’s few bright spots

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang and Alex Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the outlook for sovereigns across the Middle East and North Africa. Plus, they explore how recent developments in Iran could affect the rest of the region.
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Season 3 Episode 1
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January 11, 2023

Will China’s zero-covid policy reversal provide a boon to emerging markets in 2023?

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets.
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Season 2 Episode 38
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December 14, 2022

Lower growth and higher rates will weigh on African issuers

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team join host Scott Phillips to discuss credit dynamics in Africa amid the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington DC. Plus, Matt Pirnie, Head of Ratings at GCR Ratings joins as a special guest to discuss the biggest risks and potential bright spots facing corporate issuers in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Season 2 Episode 37
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November 30, 2022

Sustained growth slowdown in China would spill over to Asia-Pacific region and beyond

Sustained growth slowdown in China would spill over to Asia-Pacific region and beyond In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss what a sustained economic growth slowdown in China implies for the rest of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific region and lower-income countries that rely on Chinese investment flows.
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Season 2 Episode 36
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November 16, 2022

Negative global credit conditions will weigh on weaker emerging market debt issuers in 2023

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the 2023 outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with a focus on governments, companies and banks.
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Season 2 Episode 35
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November 9, 2022

Emerging markets with stronger governance, diversified economies best placed to achieve a socially “just transition”

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ana Rayes of the ESG team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the potential social ramifications of climate action, and explore the relative readiness of emerging market sovereigns for a socially just carbon transition.
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Season 2 Episode 34
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November 4, 2022

Brazil’s close election outcome will limit Lula’s ability to implement material policy changes

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of Brazil’s recent presidential elections for the sovereign, banks and companies.
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Season 2 Episode 33
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October 26, 2022

Emerging market companies face high refinancing risk as tight financial conditions persist

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best of the Emerging Markets team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss how tight financial conditions and capital outflows from emerging markets are affecting lower-rated issuers’ ability to refinance maturing international bonds.
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Season 2 Episode 32
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October 19, 2022

Lower-rated emerging markets face social, fiscal risks as credit cycle turns

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the fiscal and social implications of a sustained period of high inflation and interest rates globally for non-investment-grade emerging market sovereigns.
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Season 2 Episode 31
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September 28, 2022

Stagflation risks rise for European emerging markets

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss which Central and Eastern European countries are most at risk of stagflation and how such a scenario would impact sovereign credit profiles.
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Season 2 Episode 30
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September 14, 2022

G20 emerging market growth outlook dims; Argentina, Turkiye grapple with high inflation, low monetary policy credibility

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy and Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the latest update to Moody’s global macroeconomic outlook, with a focus on G20 emerging markets. Plus, Kathrin Muehlbronner and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team do a deep dive into Turkiye and Argentina – two of the largest emerging markets facing extraordinarily high levels of inflation.
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Season 2 Episode 29
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August 31, 2022

Most emerging markets will avert debt crisis, but frontier markets exposed to turning credit cycle

In this episode of Moody’s Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team and Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the resilience of most emerging markets to tightening financial conditions, as well as the implications for reform prospects in lower-income countries.
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Season 2 Episode 28
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August 17, 2022

Heatwaves undermine renewable energy production, utilities in Asia-Pacific and Latin America

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Ada Li and Roxana Munoz of the Infrastructure and Project Finance team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how climate change is undermining green and conventional power generation.
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Season 2 Episode 27
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August 3, 2022

Costa Rica cyberattacks highlight key risk area as emerging markets move toward digitization

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Leroy Terrelonge of the Cyber Risk team and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss rising cyber risks for emerging markets and recent attacks on Costa Rica’s government.
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Season 2 Episode 26
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July 20, 2022

Mexico and Pemex downgraded on lower economic growth prospects and increasing fiscal rigidities

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Renzo Merino of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and state-owned oil company.
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Season 2 Episode 25
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July 6, 2022

China’s zero-covid policy and property sector challenges weigh on growth, with global spillovers

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Martin Petch of the Sovereign team and Franco Leung of the Corporates team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the implications of China’s property sector stress and economic slowdown for global growth.
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Season 2 Episode 24
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June 15, 2022

Policy shifts loom as Colombia’s presidential election heads to a run-off

Analysts Renzo Merino and Nymia Almeida join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the policy proposals of the candidates vying to be Colombia’s next president and how rising social risks may lead to policy changes with important credit implications.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 23
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June 1, 2022

Gloomy outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with some bright spots

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss key takeaways from Moody’s recent Global Emerging Markets Summit. Plus, Rachel Chua of the Corporates team reveals which emerging market companies are most exposed to spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, and which stand to benefit.
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Season 2 Episode 22
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May 12, 2022

Africa, Middle East at heightened risk of social unrest; Turkey’s inflation soars

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Aurelien Mali and Kathrin Muehlbronner of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the sociopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis for the Middle East and Africa by drawing lessons from a similar global food and energy price shock in 2008. Plus, they discuss how the conflict is exacerbating an already precarious situation in Turkey.
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Season 2 Episode 21
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April 27, 2022

Frontier markets most exposed to heightened risk aversion; CIS credit quality at risk

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian de Guzman and Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereign team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how Russia’s military conflict with Ukraine is affecting Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sovereigns, as well as what stress tests on borrowing costs, exchange rates and capital flows tell us about the sovereigns most exposed to heightened risk aversion.
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Season 2 Episode 20
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April 13, 2022

Higher energy prices will delay carbon transition; Mexico’s energy policy will raise costs

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Steve Wood from the Corporates team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is affecting the global oil and gas sector, and what this means for carbon transition. Plus, Adrian Garza from the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how a major policy shift in Mexico’s energy sector will delay the move to cleaner energy, weighing on the sovereign, companies and banks.
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Season 2 Episode 19
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March 30, 2022

Russia-Ukraine crisis exacerbates food price inflation; financial conditions tighten for emerging markets

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Mickael Gondrand of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the credit implications of rising food prices for emerging and frontier markets. Plus, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team discusses the reasons why emerging markets are more likely to be able to withstand tightening global financial conditions than in the past.
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Season 2 Episode 18
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March 16, 2022

CBDCs could foster financial inclusion, growth; El Salvador Bitcoin bond entails high risks 

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla of the Sovereign team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss the potential credit implications of central bank digital currencies. Plus, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team discusses the risks associated with El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, and its upcoming Bitcoin bond issuance.
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Season 2 Episode 17
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March 3, 2022

Russia-Ukraine crisis increases global macroeconomic risks; most economies sustain less pandemic scarring

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.
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Season 2 Episode 16
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February 16, 2022

Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions will weigh on sovereigns, banks, with spillovers to Europe

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Evan Wohlmann and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team, and Olga Ulyanova of the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the credit implications of rising tensions between Western countries and Russia over the latter’s military buildup on its border with Ukraine.
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Season 2 Episode 15
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February 2, 2022

Foreign direct investment decline lowers emerging markets’ growth potential

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best from the Credit Strategy and Research team and Alexander Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of the decline in foreign direct investment flows across emerging markets. Plus, they discuss how growing global commitments to carbon transition will increase credit risks for hydrocarbon-reliant sovereigns.
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Season 2 Episode 14
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January 19, 2022

Emerging markets’ climate financing falls short; deforestation in Brazil weighs on businesses

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ruosha Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team, Barbara Mattos from the Corporates team and Ana Rayes from the ESG team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the gap in emerging markets’ climate financing needs and sources, as well as the rising social and environmental risks that deforestation poses to businesses in Brazil.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 13
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January 13, 2022

China’s economic rebalancing will reduce social risks, but transition will be bumpy

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Lillian Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team and Lina Choi from the Corporates team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss how China’s common prosperity framework and new antitrust regulations will shape the credit outlook for the sovereign and businesses.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 12
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December 8, 2021

African sovereigns and banks will face significant challenges in 2022

Aurelien Mali of the Sovereign team and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez of the Credit Strategy team discuss the outlook for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and African banks as they grapple with the pandemic’s lasting effect on the region’s economies.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 11
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November 17, 2021

Emerging markets will face multispeed recovery, even as credit conditions stabilize

Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the outlook for global emerging markets, noting that while credit conditions will stabilize in 2022, high leverage, inflation and deteriorating financial conditions will increase risks for weaker countries and sectors.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 10
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October 27, 2021

Rising commodity prices, political risk and inflation reshape LatAm credit conditions

Barbara Mattos of the Corporate Finance team and Farooq Khan of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mixed credit implications of rising commodity prices, rising inflation and political risk for companies and banks across Latin America.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 9
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October 13, 2021

China Evergrande’s financial stress raises challenges for China’s property market and economy

Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy and Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.
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Season 2 Episode 8
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September 29, 2021

Social safety nets support governments; sub-sovereign governments face high social risks

Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team discusses the cost effectiveness and advantages of social safety nets when responding to shocks. Plus, Jennifer Wong of the Sub-Sovereign team explains why emerging market regional and local governments face particularly high social risks.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 7
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September 15, 2021

Inflation risks are high for emerging markets; Islamic finance issuance steadies

Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses inflation and financial stability risks in emerging markets. Plus, Nitish Bhojnagarwala and Ashraf Madani of the Financial Institutions team talk about the outlook for Islamic finance.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 6
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September 1, 2021

China’s path to net-zero emissions will become increasingly difficult

James Leaton of the ESG team discusses carbon transition risks for emerging markets. Plus, Nishad Majmudar of the Sovereign and Credit Strategy teams and Jack Yuan of the Sub-Sovereign team discuss China’s bold plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 5
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August 18, 2021

Emerging market banks’ asset risks rising; Mexican banks benefit from rising rates

Alka Anbarasu and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mostly negative outlook for emerging market banking systems, while Rodrigo Marimon, also of the Financial Institutions team, explains how sticky deposit bases in Mexico will enable banks there to benefit from monetary tightening.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 4
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August 4, 2021

Non-investment-grade sovereigns face delayed recovery; Asia-Pacific lags in vaccinations

Marie Diron of the Sovereign group discusses the outlook for non-investment-grade sovereign ratings and how they fared during the pandemic. Plus, Anushka Shah, also of the Sovereign group, examines the credit implications of lagging vaccination rates in the Asia-Pacific region.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 3
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July 21, 2021

Credit risks for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and banks rise; telecom sector a bright spot

Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereigns team and Peter Mushangwe from the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how liquidity risks have risen for Sub-Saharan sovereigns with less-developed domestic capital markets, and the pandemic-induced asset quality deterioration of some of the largest regional banks. Also, Lisa Jaeger discusses one sector in the region experiencing growth: telecom companies.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 2
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July 7, 2021

Corporate liquidity in Latin America is adequate; Brazil faces tough policy choices

Erick Rodriguez of the Corporates team discusses how most companies and public finance projects in Latin America managed to maintain adequate liquidity levels despite the depth of their recessions. Meanwhile, Samar Maziad of the Sovereign group dives deeper into Brazil, the region’s largest economy, to answer the most frequently asked investor questions.
View Episode Notes »
Season 2 Episode 1
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June 24, 2021

Emerging markets poised for a rocky and uneven recovery from pandemic

Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team explains the effectiveness and risks of quantitative easing in emerging markets, while Matt Robinson of the Sovereign group discusses the uneven economic recovery ahead for emerging markets, common factors affecting lower-rated sovereigns and key metrics and trends to follow in 2022 and beyond.
View Episode Notes »

Welcome to Emerging Markets Decoded

Welcome to Emerging Markets Decoded! Co-hosted by Ariane Ortiz-Bollin and Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team, Emerging Markets Decoded delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for emerging market issuers across asset classes. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Ariane and Thaddeus to explore the ramifications of global macroeconomic and financial market developments, environmental, social and governance risks and other challenges for emerging economies.
View Episode Notes »
Season 1 Episode 23
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February 17, 2021

Sovereign wealth fund drawdowns will help meet elevated funding needs across Gulf

Alexander Perjessy and Thaddeus Best of the Sovereign team discuss our forecasts for a protracted recovery of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies this year, and the unique availability of these governments to tap into sovereign wealth fund assets to plug their fiscal deficits.
View Episode Notes »
Season 1 Episode 22
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February 3, 2021

Climate risks and income inequality are prime ESG risks for EM governments

Marie Diron and Daniela Re Fraschini from the Sovereign team discuss our new environmental, social and governance (ESG) sovereign scores and how sustainability issues contribute to credit risks for emerging market countries.
View Episode Notes »
Season 1 Episode 21
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January 20, 2021

Latin America grapples with slow economic recovery, rising social demands

Jaime Reusche and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team discuss our negative credit outlook on Latin American sovereigns. Although we expect the region to broadly return to GDP growth in 2021, economic revival will take time and pressure on governments to boost spending on social programs will build in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
View Episode Notes »
Season 1 Episode 20
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January 6, 2021

Credit stress will persist in Sub-Saharan Africa amid bumpy economic recovery

Aurelien Mali and David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discuss the economic and credit implications for Sub-Saharan Africa of weaker global demand and constrained access to financing, as well as how a more diverse creditor base complicates debt negotiations and liquidity relief for countries in the region with lower credit quality.
View Episode Notes »
Season 1 Episode 19
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December 9, 2020

Social trends take hold as a driver of emerging market credit and financing

Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team discusses how the coronavirus is exacerbating income inequality across emerging Asia, which will pose challenges to governments with weak social protection systems and low capacity to raise spending. Also, Matthew Kuchtyak of the ESG team looks at the growing importance of social issues for global investors, as reflected in the recent record issuance of sustainable bonds.
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Season 1 Episode 18
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November 25, 2020

Assessing the future of China’s Belt & Road and ESG risks in emerging markets

Michael Taylor and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the rising credit strains on many emerging market countries that are part of the Belt & Road Initiative and the direction of the plan post-pandemic. Plus, analyst Nishad Majmudar talks about our analysis of ESG-related credit considerations in emerging market rating actions across sectors.
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Season 1 Episode 17
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November 16, 2020

Credit conditions will be mixed across emerging markets amid uneven COVID-19 recovery

Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.
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Season 1 Episode 16
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October 28, 2020

EM government revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021

Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle. Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy.
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Season 1 Episode 15
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October 14, 2020

China ramps up infrastructure spending to galvanize economic growth

Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects. Also, Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates this year means for credit conditions for the country’s banks.​
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Season 1 Episode 14
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September 30, 2020

Government stress weighs on African banks; Lebanon’s economic conditions deteriorate

Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries. Plus, Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​
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Season 1 Episode 13
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September 16, 2020

Mexico’s job losses will cut across the economy; political risks rise in Belarus

Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long. Plus, Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 12
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September 2, 2020

Institutional weakness and high debt burdens are leading causes of sovereign defaults

Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors. Plus, Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 11
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August 19, 2020

Global remittances fall; sukuk issuance to rebound after first-half stumble

Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies. Also, Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​
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Season 1 Episode 10
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August 5, 2020

Travel slump casts shadow over UAE property market and Macao gaming

Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers. Plus, Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​
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Season 1 Episode 9
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July 22, 2020

Downturn in oil demand poses obstacles for Russian oil companies

Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment. Plus, Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​
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Season 1 Episode 8
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July 8, 2020

Pandemic shines spotlight on credit challenges in Turkey

Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock. Plus, Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 7
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June 24, 2020

Coronavirus weighs on tourism reliant EM sovereigns

David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue. Plus, Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations. ​​​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 6
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June 10, 2020

How Beijing’s policy agenda will shape China’s credit outlook

Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus. Also, Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threatens the region’s crops.​
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Season 1 Episode 5
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May 27, 2020

G-20 debt relief plan no panacea for vulnerable emerging markets

Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures. Also, Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerging markets.​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 4
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May 13, 2020

Emerging markets confront far-reaching economic challenges

Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets. Plus, Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 3
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April 29, 2020

Credit challenges in Mexico and worsening prospects for the Chinese property sector

Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX. Also, we get insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segments in emerging Asia debt markets.​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 2
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April 15, 2020

What the worlds largest lockdown and the coronavirus mean for India

India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks. Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Argentina’s economic outlook and prospects for another debt restructuring.​​​​​​
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Season 1 Episode 1
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April 1, 2020

Emerging market credit in the time of coronavirus

In this new podcast series, Moody’s experts from around the globe join host Rahul Ghosh to discuss key economic, financial and credit trends shaping emerging markets. Our first episode looks at what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops. We also discuss our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019​​​​​.
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