INSIDE ECONOMICS

Dante joins the podcast to break down the June employment report. While everyone agreed that the report was mostly good, concerns remain around the concentration of job gains and the slowdown in hiring. With job growth moderating and the unemployment rate edging higher, the team argues that the time is now for the Fed to start cutting rates.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will pursue very different economic policies if reelected. Both have put forward a wide range of proposals to change the tax code, government spending, and trade, immigration and regulatory policies that if implemented could have significant consequences on the economy’s performance for years to come. In this bonus episode of Inside Economics, the team considers what policies would likely be implemented under different election scenarios and their economic impact.

The team gives their impressions of Thursday night’s Presidential debate (hint: it involves existential dread). Then, the focus switches to the latest inflation data. Matt Colyar joins to give an overview of May’s encouraging PCE deflator report and what it implies for Fed policy. The episode closes with a roundtable discussion about the long and variable lags in which Fed policy effects the economy, and whether that means the central bank should start loosening policy now.

The Inside Economics podcast welcomes Jason Dorsey to talk about the generations that characterize the American population. The conversation takes up what event(s) define each generation, from 9/11 for the Millennials to COVID for Gen Z, and then turns to each generation’s traits and behaviors. The podcast was generationally well-balanced, with Mark the aging Boomer, Marisa and Cris the skeptical Xers, and Jason the creative Millennial.

As long as inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and the Fed maintains its higher for longer interest rate policy in response, it is premature to conclude the economy has soft-landed. This episode is a replay of the “Stubborn Inflation, Reluctant Fed” webinar hosted by Chief Economist Mark Zandi and team, as they discuss what it will take for inflation to abate, the Fed to ease, and the economy to soft-land, and what could derail this.

Matt and Marisa join Mark, who called in from an undisclosed location, to discuss this week’s CPI report and FOMC meeting on interest rates. They all agree that the CPI numbers were unambiguously positive and that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates this fall. They play the statistics game, made more difficult by the dearth of economic releases so far this week, and take a few listener questions related to inflation/deflation, OER, and the Fed. For a deeper dive on inflation and how it's measured, check out the bonus episode--a replay of a webinar hosted by Mark, Cris and Marisa on inflation and the Fed.

In a rare Saturday morning taping of the podcast, Dante and Matt join Mark (where’s Cris and Marisa?) to disentangle the considerable crosscurrents in the May jobs report. Surging immigration is complicating interpretation of the numbers. Next week’s all-important report on consumer price inflation was also the fodder of discussion, as was Mark’s Washington Post op-ed arguing the Fed should cut rates.

Mark, Marisa, and Cris are joined by their colleague Matt Colyar as they delve into the resilience of the U.S. economy. Matt kicks off the conversation with a rundown of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and its implications for monetary policy. Following a brief, engaging Stats Game, the team explores the reasons behind the U.S. economy's rapid and robust recovery compared to the rest of the world. The discussion concludes with answers to audience questions, focusing on the implications of quantitative easing/tightening and the predictive power of the yield curve.

Stock prices, house values, and even gold and crypto prices have never been higher. The team discuss the reasons why, whether it is a bubble, where prices are headed and what it all means for consumers and the broader economy. They also play the game and take listener questions. Keep them coming dear listener.

Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive and Mike Brisson of Moody’s join the crew for a discussion of inflation and autos. The team dissects this week’s CPI report, which while not great, at least wasn’t worse than expected. Mark argues that the Fed should be looking through the inflation data that’s mixed up with the problematic measures of housing inflation and start lowering rates immediately. The team is mostly on board with this view although Mike convincingly argues that it may be better for the Fed to be “credibly wrong” than incredibly right.

The Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Chris Lafakis along with Trevor Houser from the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group for a discussion on how the Inflation Reduction Act promotes the U.S.'s transition to green energy. Podcast host Mark Zandi kicks things off with a quick overview of recent economic developments. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of the IRA’s incentives and tax provisions. Following a brief statistics game, the group explores the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the April jobs report. It was something of a surprise, but a happy one, at least for Dante and Mark. The job market remains strong, but is cooling, opening the window just a bit for the Fed to begin cutting rates. But Cris and Marisa weren’t so sure, worried that the report may signal the start of a more serious slowdown.

The Inside Economics team is down a regular with Cris on the road, but two Moody’s Analytics colleagues, Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz, try to fill the void. Mark and Marisa recap a busy week by talking about GDP, inflation, and even Fed independence. The discussion of domestic migration features a healthy dose of Philadelphia homer-ism, and the team talks about the implications of the recent surge in immigration, along with plans for new population estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, Rebecca Rockey, joins the Inside Economics crew to talk about the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general. After unpacking the week’s economic events and a quick primer on outrigger canoe paddling, Rebecca walks the IE team through the different segments of CRE and how they’re faring. Mark goes through a “what’s bugging me about CRE” list but Marisa can only see the bright side. Finally, Rebecca and Cris discuss their views on the possibility of a CRE doom loop.

The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up.

Moody’s Analytics colleagues Elise Burton, Dawn Holland and Olia Kuranova join the podcast this week to discuss global female labor force participation and how it has changed since the pandemic. They identify a few key reasons for the recent narrowing of gender participation gaps, explore the economic impact of increased female participation, and discuss ways in which policymakers could encourage more women to join the labor force.

The March 2024 jobs report was picture perfect. Cris thought he had found a blemish in the numbers, but on closer inspection, not so much. Dante and Marisa explained how the economy could create so many jobs without fanning wage and price pressures. Think foreign immigration. And like stock investors, Mark found plenty to like in the report.

The Inside Economics team is joined by their Moody's Analytics colleagues, Mike Brisson and Steve Cochrane, to discuss the economic fallout from the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the subsequent closure of the Port of Baltimore. Mark Zandi kicks off the show with a rundown of the latest economic data and a healthy debate on the state of household finances ensues. The statistics game proves challenging even with Marisa providing an important hint.

Heidi Shierholz, President of the Economic Policy Institute, joins the podcast to discuss the ongoing skewing of the income distribution. There’s a lengthy list of reasons why more of the economic pie is going to those in the top of the distribution, from less unionization and lax enforcement of labor laws, but you would be surprised to hear what’s not on the list. You may also be surprised that the conversation ends on an upbeat note.

Listeners of Inside Economics have been demanding a podcast on the nation’s debt, and now they have it. At least one side of it. We talk deficits and debt with Paul Sheard, former Chief Economist of S&P Global. To Mark and team’s surprise, Paul explains why he isn’t worried about the nation’s fiscal trajectory. More views on this to come.

The Inside Economics team dissects yet another upside surprise in the February jobs report and ponders the mixed messages between the payroll and household surveys. Employment is coming in hot but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over a year and wage growth cooled. The team theorizes on why the two surveys are so at odds with each other lately. Finally, they each opine on whether the data are leaning more toward a higher risk of recession or “no landing”. Surprisingly, they’re all in agreement.

Amid all the optimism regarding a soft landing for the economy, the Inside Economics team considers what bothers them most about the economy’s near-term prospects. Cris focuses on GDP vs GDI, Marisa on the soft global economy, and Mark on the internals of the labor market. They remain upbeat about the economy, but….

Mark, Marisa, and Cris take a deep dive into current housing market trends. They consider the demand and supply drivers that are depressing existing home sales and pushing homebuyers towards new construction. Along the way, the team deconstructs mortgage rates and provides its best estimate of the nation's housing deficit. Mark challenges Marisa and Cris to come up with solutions to the housing crisis and wonders if we'll ever experience another sharp increase in foreclosures.

Inside Economics welcomes back Mark Calabria, the former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. We discuss the current housing affordability crisis and what policymakers should do to address it, the FHFA’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the risks posed by nonbank mortgage companies. The group also takes up the role of the Federal Home Loan Banks. Plenty of debate, and even some agreement.

The Inside Economics team is joined by CPI guru and colleague Matt Colyar to discuss the bevy of inflation-related data released this week. First the team dissects the Federal Reserve’s CCAR stress test scenarios and laments the perpetually inconvenient timing of their release. Talk turns to the root causes for the inflation of the past few years and why shelter inflation is so stubborn. The team imagines themselves on the FOMC for a day and what they would do with interest rates going forward.

Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Dallas-based Comerica bank, joins the Inside Economics team to assess the economic outlook and consider a range of economic issues from consumer credit to China’s prospects. We also learned what he is most anxious about, and it isn’t the outcome of the Super Bowl.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report. Fitting for Groundhog’s Day, the jobs report delivered an eerily similar upside surprise to what we saw in January 2023. Following the January meeting of the FOMC this week, the team discusses what the Fed is likely to do in light of recent data.

The Inside Economics team revels in the great economic numbers of the past week. The economy not only avoided a recession in 2023, but it ended the year enjoying robust GDP growth and tame inflation. But there are threats at the start of the new year, including a potential seizing up of the all-important Treasury bond market. Samim Ghamami of the SEC joins the podcast to discuss this threat, its causes and implications, and potential reforms to ensure it doesn’t upend financial markets and the economy.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist of the National Association of Home Builders, joins Mark Zandi, Marisa DiNatale, and Cristian deRitis to discuss the outlook for mortgage rates, home sales, and construction activity. The team delves into the immigration and demographic trends affecting housing demand along with the 5 L's (Laws, Labor, Land, Lending, and Lumber) limiting homebuilding today. Rob's quoting of Tolstoy catches everyone off guard while the wide-ranging discussion made it difficult for the team to come up with a clever podcast title so we took a cue from Friends.

In this wide-ranging podcast, we tackle the CPI inflation report, the mounting threat posed by cyberattacks on the financial system and broader economy, and the regulatory response. Jill Cetina and Lesley Ritter of Moody’s Investor Service and Joe Lyons of BitSight join us with their insights. And we finally learn how to pronounce Matt’s last name.

This week’s podcast focuses on the jobs report for December. The usual cast of characters discusses the job catch-up (not ketchup) in government and healthcare, and its implications. Everyone agreed that despite the considerable cross-currents in the numbers, it was a good report.

John Toohig, head of wholesale trading for Raymond James makes a return appearance on Inside Economics. He last joined us in the wake of the banking crisis this past March, and made the case that the banking system while bowed would not break. He was right. Join us to hear what John is now saying about the system, loan growth and quality, and what it all means for the Fed and economy.

In the last podcast before the holidays, Inside Economics chats with Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist of Northern Trust about the economy, financial system, Fed and forecasting. The group took as a good omen that they had a Tannenbaum and a DiNatale on the podcast just before Christmas (you may need to Google the names). Not that they attribute their forecasting process to the use of such signs.

The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession.

Michael Strain, resident scholar and the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s big pivot towards rate cuts early next year and the resulting monster rally in stocks and bonds. The discussion then turns to what ails the collective psyche. Think rents and the price of ramen.

Inside Economics discusses the December jobs report, which left Mark feeling “giddy”, Cris “cheerful”, Dante “happy”, and Marisa “great”. The team considers the jobs numbers in the context of other recent labor market indicators which show a resilient but moderating job market. And they end with an assessment of whether the recently boomy labor supply and strong productivity growth are sustainable.

Mark Donovan founder of the Denver Basic Income Project joins Inside Economics to discuss some early results from a guaranteed income program that provides direct cash assistance to unhoused individuals without conditions. Mark responds to a range of criticisms often levied around such efforts. And you don’t want to miss how Tesla is connected to the start of the project’s funding.

Chris Mayer, Professor of Real Estate Economics at Columbia University and CEO of Longbridge Financial, joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris to discuss reverse mortgages and the state of the residential real estate market. While the single-family market may tread water, multifamily may be in for a serious correction. Mark wonders if we can avoid the fallout from this economic meteor.

Inside Economics considers the economy’s performance and prospects through the prism of the electric utility industry with the Chief Economist of American Electric Power, Dan White. It was great to catch up with Dan, a former colleague, and get his insight on how American households and businesses are doing. He also ponders the transition to green energy.

Fred Hochberg, Fmr. Chairman & President of the Export–Import Bank of the United States and author of Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word: How Six Everyday Products Make the Case for Trade, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss all things related to global trade. The discussion takes up the U.S.-China relationship, the future of globalization, and how trade policy may change after the 2024 election. Marisa’s visit to Disneyland is a (largely irrelevant but entertaining) theme throughout.

Teresa Bazemore, CEO of the San Francisco Federal Home Loan Bank, joins the podcast to discuss the nation’s reeling housing market, and the role of the FHLB system. There’s lot to talk about as Teresa weighs recent criticism of the FHLBs in the wake of the banking crisis earlier this year, and the recent report from the FHLBs’ regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, proposing reforms to the system.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the October employment report. With job growth moderating and the unemployment rate edging higher, the Fed's fight against inflation should get a bit easier. The team also takes a few listener questions about the definition of the unemployment rate and what impact softening rents will have on single-family housing.

The Inside Economics team takes up the gangbuster GDP growth in the third quarter. Marisa walks the group through the GDP identity C+I+G+net exports and concludes that while the report overstates the case, it makes a strong case that the economy is on solid ground. Cris gives Marisa an A+ for her exposition. Good thing given their history.

Mark, Cris and Marisa welcome colleague David Fieldhouse to Inside Economics to talk about the run up in long-term bond yields and mortgage rates, as well as the outlook for the consumer. The team discusses why the 10-year yield has breached 5% for the first time since before the GFC and what it might mean for the economy if rates stay higher for longer. They also consider the possibility of the yield curve reverting into positive territory soon. Mark tries to help Cris overcome his fears of a consumer-led recession and the team considers what a Phillies World Series win might be for the economy.

Inflation was front and center in this week's podcast. Mark and Marisa (yes, she's back and winning the stats game again) hosted a wonderful cast of colleagues to talk over the September CPI report, the European inflation experience, which is similar to that here in the U.S., and given recent grim events in the Middle East, energy prices. The bottom line is inflation continues to head in the right direction, but not in a straight line.

Dante joins Cris and Mark to digest the September jobs report. The outsized job gain during the month was surprising, but after Dante's masterful dissection of the data, the group agrees there is a lot to like in the report. After the stats game, the discussion turns to the recent surge in long-term interest rates and how big a threat it poses to the economy.

The fast approaching federal government shutdown is top of mind on this week's podcast. Mark and Cris consider how the shutdown may play out and the economic consequences. Two other colleagues, Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick, then join the conversation to assess the all important Chinese and Japanese economies. Are the economic fortunes of these two massive economies flip-flopping?

Inside Economics welcomes Rob Fauber, President and CEO of Moody's Corporation to the podcast. He discusses his concept of exponential risk and the opportunities and challenges of using AI. Rob shares what it's like to lead a global firm and answers a few get-to-know-you questions from Mark, Cris and Marisa. But before the conversation with Rob, the team discusses how worried they are about various economic threats and their potential impact on the macroeconomic economy.

The looming UAW strike is top of mind, and no one better to talk to about how it may play out and what it means for the economy than Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and our own vehicle industry expert, Mike Brisson. Bernard Yaros also joins the podcast to talk about the consumer inflation report. Mark and Cris agree that while the current economic numbers look good, there's plenty to worry about.

Given the strong counter narratives regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy - from bright optimism that AI will significantly lift productivity growth and wealth to dark pessimism that it will lead to a dystopic increase in unemployment and cybercrime - we asked Martin Fleming to sort it out. And the former chief economist of IBM and current author and Chief Revenue Scientist at Varicent does just that. And Mark does a bit of advertising along the way.

The August jobs report couldn't have been much better. Dante and Cris called it a good report, while Mark and Marisa thought it was a VERY good report. Either way, the report has soft landing written all over it. In standing with the good cheer over the jobs numbers, the group recounted their favorite music. Some surprises there.

The economy is performing about as well as could be expected. Growth is resilient, inflation is moderating, and unemployment is low and stable. It appears increasingly likely the economy will avoid a recession. But, having said this, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes are weighing heavily on the financial system and economy. To avoid a recession, nothing else can go wrong. In this podcast, Mark, Cris, and team consider what could go wrong.

Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going on in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker Chris Whalen then joins the conversation to talk about the banking system, its' under significant pressure, the independent mortgage banks, a shakeout is underway, and the Fed and other regulators, he's not a fan.

The Inside Economics team dissects the July report on consumer price inflation and concludes that inflation is on track to be back to the Fed's inflation target by this time next year. Well, OK, Cris thought more likely the end of next year. The discussion then turned to modest fallout from the banking crisis earlier this year (at least so far) and Fed Policy with University of Maryland economics professor Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

It's jobs Friday, and Mark, Cris and Dante discuss the near perfect (Dante's description) July employment report. Job growth remains strong, but it is moderating, and should help convince the Federal Reserve that its interest rates hikes are over. The group identified a few nits in the numbers, but the report was so good Cris lowered his odds the economy will suffer a recession in the coming year.

Mark, Cris and Marisa (yes, she is back) welcome Matt Robison of the Beyond Politics podcast to talk policy and politics. The discussion ranged from the risk of a government shutdown and Bidenomics to a consideration of whether the nation's politics are as fractured as they seem and who is going to be the next President. It goes without saying there was also a fulsome conversation about this past week's economic data - could the numbers have been any better? Even "supercore" inflation was up just 0.2% month over month and 4.2% year over year in June.

Mark and Cris take stock of the economy's performance so far this year, and consider what surprised them (think the job market), what they got right (think weaker house prices), and what they got wrong (think the banking crisis). They also look forward and discuss what people are overly considered about, and what they should be more worried about. Where's Marisa?

The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard. The report arguably couldn't have been better, as the conversation makes clear. The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance.

Mark, Cris & Marisa are joined by Jobs Day regular Dante DeAntonio to discuss the June employment report. Job growth is slowing to script but wage growth is still stubbornly high. The group discusses full employment, the probabilities of recession in the next year and what this all means for the Fed’s upcoming meetings.

Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the China Center of the Yale Law School, discusses China's near and longer-term economic prospects with Mark, Cris and Marisa. Steve explains why he has evolved from a bull to a bear on China's economy, why the critical relationship between China and the U.S. has gone sideways, and how to get the relationship moving in a positive direction.

Mark, Cris and Marisa weigh whether or not to change the forecast for the Fed funds rate and dig deep to play the statistics game. Later they are joined by Professor Glenn Mueller of the University of Denver to talk all things commercial real estate. Professor Mueller ranks the segments of the CRE market from worst to best performing and explains why the legalization of marijuana has disrupted the retail market.

The Inside Economics team takes shelter from a tornado (true story), and Mark Calabria, senior advisor to the Cato Institute and former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, describes the FHFA's efforts to provide shelter to the housing and mortgage finance markets during the pandemic. His new book "Shelter from the Storm," is a fascinating telling of that difficult period.

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions over the independence of Taiwan, Mark and team consider various scenarios regarding how this is ultimately resolved. China appears to be taking a long-term perspective in its goal to unify Taiwan with the mainland, and thus the most likely scenario assumes the current uncomfortable, but peaceful status quo. But much darker scenarios can't be ruled out.

The group dives deep into the jobs market report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of the legislative deal to end the debt limit drama, including the end of the student loan payment moratorium, are also part of the discussion. And of course there is the statistics game.

Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain even as the x-date draws near. What are the alternatives if no deal is reached? And what could be the consequences for bondholders, Social Security recipients, and other stakeholders? Ben joins Mark and Cris in a round of the Inside Economics Statistics Game and provides his views on the future of retirement financing.

Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, joins the podcast to share his insights on all things construction. Construction is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, yet despite the near unprecedented tightening in monetary policy, it is holding its' own. What gives? The group also digs deep into the different parts of the construction sector, from the struggling office market to the surge in public infrastructure.

Mark and team do a deep dive into the inflation numbers and consider prospects that inflation will continue to moderate. After the statistics game, they turn to their latest research considering the economic fallout of what could happen if lawmakers fail to increase the debt limit in time. It isn't pretty.

Another jobs Friday, another strong jobs report. Dante DeAntonio joins the crew to break down the employment numbers and what they mean for the near-term outlook. The team also discusses the recent banking crisis, the looming debt limit x-date, and the most likely outcomes for both. And is someone using ChatGPT to cheat at the statistics game?

Falling house prices and recent housing policy actions taken by the FHA and FHFA to address housing affordability are top of mind this week. Edward Pinto, Senior Fellow and the Director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute joins to discuss. The team also provides their thoughts on weaker-than-expected GDP data. Is the weak GDP # good or bad for the economy? Marisa dominates the statistics game.

John Toohig, head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, joins Mark, Cris and Marisa to discuss the fallout of the banking crisis on lending standards, credit growth and the economy. The fallout so far seems manageable, but...

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive and colleague Mike Brisson join Mark and Cris to discuss what’s going on in the vehicle market. After a rundown on this week’s inflation stats we discuss prospects for vehicle prices, sales, production, and the implications of tighter underwriting and weaker credit quality in the auto loan market. We also take up the tough new emission standards and what they mean for EV adoption.

Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, joins the podcast. She gives us a rundown on the economy, including her thoughts on the job market and inflation, and the hard work of incorporating climate risk into the outlook for the economy and the federal budget.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins us for the Match release of the US employment report. Down the strike zone. In the middle of the uprights. Down the fairway. Sticking to script. All apt descriptions of the job market in the month of March. But this is all before the fallout of the banking crisis has become evident.

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, join Mark, Cris and Marisa to cut through the uncertainty over the banking crisis and China's prospects. The worst of the banking crisis appears to be over, but China's economic problems are only beginning.

Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG returns to discuss fragilities in the financial system and the impact on credit availability and the economy. She shared her view that a meaningful recession is dead ahead. We also discuss the Fed's meeting earlier this week and their decision to not pause rates given the banking system turmoil.

Mark and Marisa welcome third time returning guest Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute to discuss the recent bank failures. They converse and debate about how things went so badly off the trails, the government's response and what could have been done differently, and the implications for the Fed's interest rate decision next week.

It's another Jobs' Friday and colleague Dante DeAntonio is here to discuss February's employment report. Wage growth is moderating and the unemployment rate ticked up, but labor supply among prime age workers reached a post-pandemic high--is that enough evidence to say we are at full employment? Also on the agenda is discussing the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the 2nd largest bank collapse in U.S. History. We are already seeing the disruption in financial markets but what does it mean for the broader economy?

Colleagues Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse join the podcast to analyze the state of American consumers and household balance sheets. Then Mark, Cris and Marisa answer some listener questions.

Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year. You will be surprised. Mark and Cris were.

Bill Spriggs, Chief Economist of AFL-CIO, joins the podcast and shares his views that we need to be patient on inflation, it's not the result of an overly tight labor market but to temporary forces, and thus does not require aggressive Fed rate hikes. He also dissects President Biden's industrial policy.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa answer questions from their recent U.S. Economic Outlook webinar where they discussed that the economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat, but the Moody's Analytics baseline forecast-the most-likely outlook-holds that the economy will avoid a downturn.

Colleague, Bernard Yaros joins the podcast to help unpack the January CPI Report (which just happened to be released on Valentine's Day) and discuss their biggest inflation concerns, including Marisa's shockingly high gas bill. Bernard gives a rundown of the U.S. Treasury outlook with regards to the debt limit.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director at Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the housing market, from the current housing recession to the outlook for homeownership. Go Eagles!

Colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast for another round of Job's Friday. The group dissects the January report, which included a shockingly large increase in jobs and a 53-year low unemployment rate. Everyone's probability of recession in the next 12-18 months appear to be trending downward. Including Cris!

Mark and Cris welcome Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and colleague Gaurav Ganguly, to discuss climate change and Matthew's optimistic view on adaptation to global temperature rise.

The Q4 GDP Report has been released and Mark, Cris, and Marisa analyze the weirdness surrounding the data. Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, joins the podcast to give a European perspective and Mark continues his domination in the statistics game.

We welcome Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School to discuss what could potentially be a catastrophic default of the national debt. We'll get into President Biden's economic policies, inflation, and recession over the next 12-18 months. Jason came to play with some humor, positivity, and a great stat.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings, to dissect the CPI report, and discuss Fed policy, prospects for recession, and the looming threat of a debt limit breach.

It's job's Friday and Mark argues the labor market is cooling off according to script. Colleagues Dante DeAntonio and Marisa DiNatale provide the details. And Cris fine-tunes his definition of the best way to describe the economy's performance in the year ahead - "Slowcession".

To kick off the new year, Mark, Cris, and Marisa share their U.S. economic outlooks for 2023. Which sectors are at risk? Will the Fed tip us in? We discuss the full gamut and introduce a new segment where we take listeners' questions.

Colleague, Scott Hoyt, joins to discuss where the American consumer stands and how that differs by income group. A shrinking savings rate and sputtering retail sales won't break the American consumer or Mark's good mood. The group differs on the odds of recession, but is in agreement a slowcession is underway. Happy Holidays to all our listeners.

Greg Jensen, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater Associates, Mark and the team this week. We get into the causes and outlook for inflation and prospects for the economy and financial markets. Greg shares his dark forecast with the group.

Justin Wolfers, Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, joins the podcast to discuss inflation, monetary policy, and prospects for recession next year. Are we being too pessimistic when so much is going well with the U.S. economy?

Mark and Cris welcome back colleague, Dante DeAntonio of Moody's Analytics, to analyze the November U.S. Employment Report. Is the jobs market moderating? Depends who you ask.

Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, discuss the state of remote work and the economic implications.

Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, join the podcast to provide a labor market outlook.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa discuss the yield curve and give their latest recession odds. They also welcome back colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, Chris Lafakis, and Bernard Yaros of Moody's Analytics, to examine the challenges of climate change and the impact on the U.S. economy.

Mark and Cris break down the October CPI Report and the latest on inflation. Colleagues, Dan White and Emily Mandel of Moody's Analytics, join the podcast to give a rundown of the midterm election results and the economic implications.

Mark and the team dissect October's employment report, the Fed's most recent rate hike, and what it all means for the prospects for a recession in the coming year.

Mark Obrinsky, Chief Economist for the National Multifamily Housing Council, joins the podcast and gives a detailed housing outlook. Topics include rent growth, housing shortage, and the impact of inflation on the housing market. Mark and Cris also welcome Marisa DiNatale as the new co-host of Inside Economics.

On Ryan's final episode of Inside Economics, John Leer, Chief Economist of Morning Consult, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the economy, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and the potential early signs of a wage-price spiral.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Aaron Klein, Miriam K. Carliner Chair and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss stress points in the global financial system, the conditions for a financial crisis, and whether central banks are going to break something.

Colleague Marisa DiNatale, Director Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark and Cris to breakdown the September Consumer Price Index Report. They also discuss the impact of inflation on energy prices, food prices, the housing market, and wage growth.

Colleague Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics joins the podcast to analyze the September U.S. Employment Report and OPEC's announcement to cut oil production. Everyone gives their latest odds of a recession and how soon that could happen.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris breakdown this week's key economic data and developments in financial markets. They also go through the economic impact of Hurricane Ian and the policy errors that are unfolding in the U.K. and ironically where Mark records the podcast from.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome colleague Dan White of Moody's Analytics and Bill Glasgall, Senior Director, Public Finance at the Volcker Alliance, to discuss state and local government finances and whether it will be a tailwind or drag on the broader economy.

Mark, Cris, and Ryan sit down for their first in-person podcast to discuss their recession odds over the next 6,12, or 18 months. They list out both contributing and mitigating risk factors and the market signals to watch to understand where the economy is headed.

Janice Stanton, Executive Managing Director at Cushman and Wakefield and Victor Calanog, head of CRE at Moody's Analytics join the podcast to share their views in Commercial Real Estate and how it impacts the U.S. economy. Mark, Cris, and Ryan discuss recent developments in financial markets and the latest decision by the Fed.

Nick Bunker, Research Director of Indeed, joins the podcast to share his views on the the U.S. labor market, including unemployment, job openings, quits, and remote work. Nick stumps Mark, Cris, and Ryan in the statistics game.

Doug Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum, joins the podcast to provide his take on the U.S. economy, inflation, employment, and GDP. The big topic fiscal policy while everyone provides their odds of a recession.

Two colleagues and regulars on Inside Economics, Marisa DiNatale and Dante DeAntonio, join Mark, Cris, and Ryan to breakdown the August U.S. Employment Report and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Due to a bad wifi connection, Mark is forced to participate all episode by cell phone.

In this bonus episode Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss all aspects of stagflation, including the definition, the causes, and what they're watching to assess the risk of this scenario.

Mark and Cris welcome back Wayne Best, Chief Economist of Visa, to give the latest American Consumer outlook, including the topics of excess savings, spending behavior and categories, credit trends, and interest rates. They also discuss President Biden's student loan proposal.

Mark and Cris welcome Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Senior Resident Fellow for the Climate and Energy program at Third Way, to discuss her views on climate risk in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and her outlook on the vehicle industry.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris kick off this episode by discussing inflation and the latest CPI Report. For the second part, they welcome John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to give a detailed U.S. housing market outlook, that includes the topics of mortgage rates, the potential threat of a housing crash, and the affordable housing shortage.

Mark, Ryan and Cris welcome colleagues, Marisa DiNatale and Dante DeAntonio, to dig deep into the July U.S. employment report. They also discuss what the new data tells us about a recession, productivity and what it means for the Federal Reserve.

Mark and Cris welcome Alan Blinder, Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University, to discuss the prospects for recession, inflation, monetary policy and financial conditions.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome colleague, Scott Hoyt, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to dissect the state of American consumers and how they are the firewall to avoiding a U.S. recession.

Mark, Ryan and Cris are joined by a bevy of colleagues to dig deeper into the June Consumer Price Index report and the sources of inflation, including energy, vehicles, food and shelter.

Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-at-Home Macro Consulting, joins Mark and Ryan to discuss the June employment report. They also talk about inflation, monetary policy, and the odds of a recession.

Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, joins the podcast to examine the economic state of Europe and if they are headed into a recession. The gang also discusses the latest GDP release, recession odds, and beer of choice.

Julia Coronado, President and Founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins the podcast to discuss whether we can talk ourselves into a recession, the mixed messages on consumer sentiment and what the odds a downturn are. She also crushes the statistics game.

Anna Stansbury, assistant professor of work and organization studies at the MIT Sloan School of Management, joins the podcast to discuss the lack of diversity in the economics profession. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting is debated and the discussion goes off the music sheet!?! (Zandism)

Sheila Bair, Member of Banking Advisory Group and former Chair of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, joins the podcast to discuss the policy response to the Great Recession, concerns about today's U.S. economy, including student debt.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris work overtime on a Saturday to break down the Consumer Price Index Report.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the May U.S. Employment Report. They also debate whether the economy is strong or weak and if it's possible we can talk ourselves into a recession.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, to discuss current global supply chain conditions and economic implications.

Jim Hempstead, Lesley Ritter, and Leroy Terrelonge from Moody's Investors Service, Join the podcast to discuss the rising concern of cyber risks and attacks.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris dive deep into the history, the causes, and the main indicators of recessions.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss the latest data on U.S. consumer prices. The big topic is monetary policy and what the Fed should do and whether the economy is more or less sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back two colleagues and regulars on the podcast, Marisa DiNatale and Dante DeAntonio of Moody's Analytics, to discuss the April U.S. employment report.

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business at New York University Stern School of Business, joins the podcast to discuss the U.S. and Global economic outlook and the threats of stagflation.

Colleague, Emily Mandel, economist at Moody's Analytics, moderates this Q&A session to get to know Mark, Ryan, and Cris a little better.

Jared Bernstein, Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, including the labor market, inflation, housing and recession risks.

Mark and Cris welcome Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist of Cox Automotive and colleague Mike Brisson, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the outlook in the vehicle market.

The odds of a U.S. recession are on the rise. Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies at American Enterprise Institute, joins the podcast to discuss the risks driving a potential recession. Everyone shares their probability of a recession.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to breakdown the March U.S. Employment Report. They also discuss inflation, wage growth, and the current state of the economy.

Eric Gaus, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins the podcast to discuss an array of issues that are bothering them, including U.S. stock prices, yield curve, and the labor market. The podcast also provides an update on the economic impact of the military conflict between Russian-Ukraine. The big topic is geopolitical risk.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris do a deep dive into GDP. What is it? How is it measured and what are it's shortcomings?

Mark and Cris welcome two guests from Zelman & Associates, Ivy Zelman, CEO and Dennis McGill, Director of Research to discuss the state of housing and mortgage markets.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome more Moody's Analytics colleagues to discuss energy commodity shortages due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how this effects the global economy.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics to discuss the February U.S. employment report and discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and how that might impact the U.S. economy. They also mix it up and play the statistics game at the end of the show.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome a number of Moody's Analytics colleagues from around the world to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and what this means for the global economy.

Jesse Rogers, Bernard Yaros, Ross Cioffi, three of Mark's coauthors on his latest paper on global fiscal policy during the pandemic, join the podcast to discuss different aspects of the paper. Plus, Sharon Parrott, President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, joins to give her perspective on the U.S. fiscal policy response to the pandemic.

Mark, Cris, and Ryan discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the economic outlook surrounding the conflict. They also welcome Diane Lim, Policy Director for the U.S. House Select Committee on Economic Disparity and Fairness in Growth to focus on the big topic, income and wealth distribution in the U.S.

John Leer, Chief Economist of Morning Consult, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss consumers perception of the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and also the state of U.S. consumer sentiment. Cris sneaks his statistic in at the last minute.

Gaurav Ganguly, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the podcast to focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and what it means for the global economy.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss the latest economic statistics in great detail.

Interest rates are on the rise and the Fed is set to normalize monetary policy. Damien Moore, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the podcast to discuss.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the latest employment report.

Chad Moutray, Chief Economist of National Association of Manufacturers, joins the podcast to discuss manufacturing, supply chains, and labor market shortages. Mark is on a hot streak in the stats game.

Elaine Buckberg, Chief Economist of General Motors, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the vehicle industry. They breakdown what is going on with vehicle prices, supply chains, and the outlook for electric vehicles.

Michael McNamara, Senior Principal for MasterCard, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the state of the American consumer and the impact of Omicron on spending.

With the Omicron wave upon us, it would be Pollyannaish to get overly enthused about the economy's prospects in the new year. But if the economy's performance last year is a guide, we should not be too pessimistic either. Despite being hit hard by the Delta wave of the virus, the economy grew like gangbusters in 2021. It will not grow as strongly in 2022, but inflation, which took off in recent months, will come back to earth. Having said this, how good a year the economy will have depends on the pandemic's path and how well policymakers respond.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, to dissect the December U.S. employment report and the latest effects of the Omicron variant on the economy. They also discuss reasons why people are quitting in droves.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss the reasons to be concerned and optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2022.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Joe Kennedy, senior principal economist at MITRE, to discuss the U.S. dollar, reserve currencies, and crypto.

Ed Golding, Executive Director of the MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy and a Senior Lecturer at MIT Sloan, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss all things related to the U.S. housing market.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss the November consumer price index. The big topic is whether stock prices, housing, and crypto are in the midst of a bubble.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moodys Analytics, to breakdown the November U.S. employment report. They find plenty of reasons for optimism even though job growth fell short of expectations. They also touch on the latest variant, Omicron, and how it may impact the economy.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss inflation throughout the history of the United States and whether we're in the midst of an era.

Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Grant Thornton, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss the current state of the American consumer. They focus on what factors are driving the holiday sales, excess savings, and an outlook on inflation and it's effects on consumers.

Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the global economic impact of climate change, the potential effects of a carbon tax on the economy, and the climate risk policies in President Biden's Build Back Better plan.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris dissect the October U.S. employment report and what it says about the state of the economy, wage growth, and inflation. We knew there were Hunger Games and Squid Games. Now add the Zandi Games.

Kevin Hassett, Vice President and Managing Director of the Lindsey Group and former Chair of the Council of Economics under President Trump, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the risk of a recession, inflation, and tax proposals in President Biden's Build Back Better legislation.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome Gaurav Ganguly, a Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics and Chris Lafakis, a Director of Economic Research. They discuss global energy markets, the effect on the economy and where energy prices are headed.

Joe Kennedy, senior principal economist at MITRE, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the different schools of thought on anti-trust and market competition. They also discuss Big Tech and Big Pharma.

The U.S. bond market is showing angst about the debt ceiling. While the debt ceiling will likely be raised, there is a history of waiting until the last minute. Ryan Sweet provides actionable insights to help you better manage your credit portfolio during this uncertain time.

Betsey Stevenson, Professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan's Ford School, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to dissect the September employment report, the future of working from home, and Biden's economic agenda. Also, Mark has a podcast, a YouTube channel, and now a Twitter handle. Follow @markzandi.

The Delta-variant of COVID-19 has damaged the economic recovery, but we remain optimistic the economy is on track to return to full employment by spring 2023. What could derail this optimism? Could the economy perform better than anticipated? What is the long-term economic fallout of the pandemic?

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss unemployment insurance benefits, Delta variant, and what happened this week in Washington, DC. The main topic is the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic. Also, Mark reveals his favorite movie.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Bernard Yaros, an economist from Moody's Analytics to discuss fiscal policy, the odds of a government shutdown, and the debt limit.

Tim Uy, Todd Metcalfe, and Jesse Rogers, all economists at Moody's Analytics, join Mark and Ryan to discuss global supply chains and commodity shortages. The focus is on issuances around semiconductors, lumber, and copper.

Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow in economic studies at Brookings Institute, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss the current state and future of crypto currencies.

Mark and Ryan welcome back Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the August job numbers, the Delta variant, and economic costs of Hurricane Ida.

Bill Gale, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institute, joins Mark and Ryan to discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the big topic was fiscal policy.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa Di Natale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics to discuss the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy. The big topic is the health of the American household balance sheet.

Daniel Rosen, founder of Rhodium Group, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss all things China.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back their first repeat appearance guest - Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moodys Analytics. They breakdown the numbers in the July Employment Report and discuss the labor force and productivity in great detail. They also touch on the Delta Variant and its impact on the economy.

Kamil Kovar, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Cris and Ryan to discuss U.S. and euro zone GDP along with wages. They also discuss Mark's cancelled flight and the big topic was monetary policy in the U.S. and euro zone.

Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris and they recall their own favorite and least favorite forecast of all-time. They also discuss different approaches to forecasting, the meaning of being accurate, and who is a hedgehog or fox.

Dan White, Director of Public Sector Research at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to debate the economic impact of the bipartisan infrastructure deal and other proposed government spending.

Wayne Best, Chief Economist of Visa, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the labor market, housing, and Visa's spending momentum index.

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss what they are watching to gauge the health of the economy and the big topic was froth in asset markets.

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the latest indicators, follow up on one of their first podcast topics - inflation, and discuss their individual models.

Mike Brisson, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the latest CPI report, labor market, homebuyer perceptions, and the vehicle market.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi to discuss the May U.S. employment report and the state of the labor market.

Jim Parrott at Urban Institute, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market and the supply issues its facing. We also discuss this week's key economic data.

In this episode of Inside Economics, our weekly podcast, Bernard Yaros, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss fiscal policy, debt and deficits. We also discuss this weeks data, including inflation, lumber prices, tax refunds and the CNN/Moody's Analytics back-to-normal index.

Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent inflation data and 2020 Census.

Adam Ozimek Chief Economist at Upwork, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent job numbers and productivity.

The economy is booming, should President Biden get the credit? ...and what about his newly unveiled American Families plan? Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss.

Mark Zandi and team discuss interest rates, 10-year treasury yield, inflation, monetary policy, and when we can expect to get back to full employment.

Mark Zandi and team discuss the economic recovery, whether we are at an inflection point, consumer and business confidence and recent performance indicators.

Mark Zandi and team discuss the trade deficit, jobless claims, the Back to Normal Index and President Biden's infrastructure plan.

Mark Zandi and team discuss the recent jobs report, bubbles, cryptocurrencies and expectations for the economy.

Mark Zandi welcomes you to the “Inside Economics” podcast and discusses what will be covered in the series. Subscribe today!