OUTLOOK CONNECTIONS

Ranjini Venkatesan and Jacintha Poh of the Corporates team and Andrew Blease of the Infrastructure Finance team discuss remote work, office space, business travel and commuting in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Americas in light of the pandemic.

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Outlook Connections, Anushka Shah from the Sovereign team and Daniel Harlid and Christina Boni from the Corporates team join host Natasha Brereton-Fukui to discuss how the supply chain weaknesses exposed by the pandemic will influence the credit outlook for governments and businesses in 2022 and beyond.

Warren Kornfeld from the Banking team, Rachael McDonald from Public Finance, Kelly Chen and Natalia Gluschuk from Corporates and Barbara Rismondo from Structured Finance discuss the outlook for sectors exposed to the US, European and Chinese housing markets in the year ahead.

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Outlook Connections, Christina Padgett of our Corporates team and Ramon Torres of our Structured Finance team join host Aaron Johnson to discuss recent leveraged loan and collateralized loan obligation (CLO) trends and what we expect for 2022.

Colin Ellis of the Credit Strategy & Research team and Anne Van Praagh of the Sovereign team discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2022 as the effects of the coronavirus pandemic ebb. They also outline the growing importance of social risks, particularly income inequality, for countries across the globe.

Elena Duggar, Moody’s Investors Service’s chief credit officer for the Americas, and Gersan Zurita, credit officer for Latin America, explain why we expect global credit conditions to settle in 2022, and discuss the six key themes – from pandemic disruption to inequality and social risk – that we think will influence credit markets next year.

Barbara Rismondo of the Structured Finance team, Warren Kornfeld of the Banking team, Florence Zeman of the Public Finance team and Natalia Gluschuk of the Corporates team discuss the 2021 outlook for sectors exposed to the US and European housing markets. US nonbank mortgage lenders and homebuilders will report good profitability owing to government stimulus, while US housing finance agencies and European and US residential mortgage-backed securitizations will experience moderately higher delinquencies amid higher unemployment.

With a vaccine unlikely to be widely available for several months, Moody’s public finance analyst Valentina Gomez, airports analyst Earl Heffintrayer, mass transit analyst Baye Larsen, airlines analyst Jonathan Root and lodgings industry analyst Peter Trombetta discuss the outlook for travel and tourism in 2021 and consider what it will take to get travellers back on the road and in the air.

Kendra Smith, Tim Blake and Leonard Jones of the Public Finance team discuss the prospects in 2021 for US states, local governments, universities and not-for-profit hospitals. A strong economic rebound accompanied by a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout would boost tax revenues, while encouraging students to return to campus and allowing hospitals to carry out more profitable elective surgeries. An uneven recovery may force some states and local governments to cut spending further, particularly those dependent on tourism and energy.

Gene Fang from the Sovereign team, Yubin Fu from Sub-Sovereign team and Nicholas Zhu from the Banking team discuss the credit outlook across a number of Chinese sectors in 2021, including regional and local governments. They outline that risks that are emerging as the government withdraws pandemic-related support and refocuses on deleveraging, but that despite rising defaults China will be able to mitigate any economic volatility.

Elena Nadtotchi and Matthias Heck of the Corporates team and Nana Hamilton of the Infrastructure team explore the outlook for global oil and gas producers, global auto makers, US regulated power utilities, and European unregulated utilities. The oil and gas and auto industries’ capital spending will come under pressure following a coronavirus-induced drop in revenues during 2020, although companies continue to invest in carbon transition. Utilities’ capital spending will remain robust because the pandemic has had less impact on them.

Analysts Mickey Chadha and Kevin Fagan discuss the outlook for US retail and the credit conditions for the US commercial mortgage-backed securities market in 2021. They outline how the coronavirus pandemic is rapidly accelerating digitization, which is increasingly dividing retailers into digital-haves and have-nots, reshaping mall design and determining which retail tenants are attractive to the market.

Christina Padgett and Sandra Veseli of the Corporates team, Al Remeza of the Structured Finance team, and Ana Arsov of the Financial Institutions team discuss the outlook for leveraged finance and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the US and EMEA. Coronavirus-related defaults will likely peak in 2021, but banks’ exposure is limited. Lower-rated loans to coronavirus-exposed sectors will be worst affected, with a knock-on effect on the junior tranches of existing CLOs.

Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.

Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven economic recovery, higher corporate and sovereign debt loads, and the accelerated digital transformation of major business sectors.

On Moody’s Talks - Outlook Connections, analysts from around the globe will outline our views on the business conditions for credit markets in the year ahead. We’ll aim to analyze the interplay and correlations between major sectors and asset classes as well as the potential impacts of both short and long term economic trends. From oil, automotive and energy to retail and CMBS, and from airlines and the hospitality sectors to panoramic perspectives on the US and China, join us on a journey into the future of fixed income markets. Published by Moody's Investors Service.